Mortgage Rates Jump to 5.37%

Yes, mortgage rates are up. Rates have jumped from 4.93% at the beginning of the month to 5.37% today. The question is will they go up further, or stop and reverse like they did over the summer when rates approached 5.6%?

Looking at the chart below from bankrate.com, we see mortgage rates varying over the course of the past 12 months. We can see several periods of ups and downs. Have the underlying conditions in the mortgage markets changed?

2009 Mortgage Rates Chart

The Mortgage Rate Factor

The easiest way to understand mortgage rates is to understand that if it cost lenders more, it will cost you more. Mortgage lenders compete with US Treasury Bonds which are fully guaranteed by the US government. Mortgage lenders will pay more to borrow than the government to compensate for risk.

Look at the chart below that combines mortgage rates and 30 year bond prices. It’s not exact, but the darker line is mortgage rates and the lighter line the 30 year bond rates. It appears to correlate very closely. As bond rates go up and down, so do mortgage rates.

2009 30 Year Bond Rates Against Mortgage Rates

Look across at the horizontal lines and you will see that the lines correlate. Ignore the vertical scale because I didn’t match up the scales. The point is that recent mortgage rates correlate with US Treasury 30 year bonds.

We see continued pressure on Mortgage rates because of continued pressure on 30 year Treasury Bonds. The deficit is at $12 billion and growing. We believe that results in inflation at some point. Inflation means that bond buyers will expect higher rates to compensate; bringing mortgage rates up with them.

What to Do Now

If you are in the market to purchase Daytona Beach or Ormond Beach real estate, and you will be financing your purchase, it will be important for you to track mortgage rates. To fully understand the impact of changes in mortgage rates refer to our article Basic Math for Home Buyers Who Finance.

Make it a point to track 30 year US Treasury bond rates too. You can track these at CNN, Bloomberg, or Yahoo Finance.

If you qualify for the current home buyers tax credit you should take advantage of it before it expires with contracts written after April 30th. We don’t know if the credit will be extended, so why not take advantage of as much as $8,000.

We’ve seen prices stabilize in the past quarter, but that’s no guarantee that they won’t fall again, but whether they fall or not, it is to your advantage to secure the lowest possible mortgage rate and get the tax credit. We can help you find properties that are priced right, but we still advise that you don’t buy in this market unless you are going to hold the property for 5-7 years.

We are available to discuss your options. Give us a call at 386-566-7503 with your questions.