2009 Big Recovery Year for Daytona Beach Real Estate Sales

Sales of Daytona Beach Condos and Homes were way up in 2009. More homes and condos were sold in the 12 months of 2009 than in the previous 16+ months in 2007 and 2008. 3993 properties were sold in 2009 against 2890 in 2008 or 1103 more in 2009.

The total numbers tell the story, but looking at the graph of 2008 versus 2009 home sales through the Daytona Beach MLS shows it more dramatically.

2008 - 2009 Daytona Beach Real Estate Sales

The Last Four Months of 2009 Huge For Daytona Beach Home Sales

We can see that the increase in sales was even more dramatic over the last four months of the year. Sales from September to December were up 74.1% in 2009 over 2008. December sales were up 79.6%

Why Are Daytona Beach Property Sales Up?

There is a lot of speculation to attempt to tell us why sales are up. My contention is that we are closer to normal sales levels based on historical sales before the big speculative run-up. In other words, we are pretty close to normal levels before the boom. When sales went bust, they swung very much too low and have now come back to normal.

There is little doubt that the home buyer tax credits are helping, but we don’t know the extent of the impact. We also know that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA and other government agencies are backing 90% of mortgages currently written. So we see that the risk of  any mortgages being written is being assumed by the US government. See more on this at Daytona Beach Real Estate Market Boosted by US Treasury.

And then there is the bargain factor. People are taking advantage of what they see as low prices. Whether they are at the low point is impossible to say. We won’t know that until well after we hit bottom. What these buyers are saying, with their money, is I am willing to buy at this price. I’m getting a bargain.

Where Do Sales Go From Here?

I will go out on a limb as say that sales will be about level for 2010. I’m basing this forecast on several factors, but the overriding factor is that sales were up most dramatically at the end of the year. Meaning that the first eight months were not nearly dramatic in their increase. That will buffer variations in sales month to month. Simply, sales for the year averaged 333 properties per month, but the final four months of the year saw the following sales:

• September 371
• October 355
• November 404
• December 413

The average for the final four months was 386 or 53 properties higher than the average for the entire year. That gives a cushion for things like the tax credit not being renewed or delays in the economy recovering.

On the positive side; if the economy comes back strong and more mortgage money is made available, sales could be much higher. So, at this point, my best forecast is for level sales with a good upside potential.

I’m still concerned about inflation and a rise in inflation would have at least a short term impact on sales. I’m not an economist, so this forecast is unscientific. The best advice for people in the market is to closely monitor economic, price and sales news. Of course, you can do that here. We post articles nearly every day to keep you updated.